With less than three weeks until November 4, the outcome of the 2008 presidential race remains far from certain. To shed light on some of the issues, BMCC’s Executive Director of Public Affairs, Barry Rosen, recently sat down with political activist-author Ron Hayduk, associate professor of political science at BMCC and a recognized authority on political participation, elections and voting, race and ethnicity, immigration, and social movements. Following are excerpts from the first in a series of interviews with Professor Hayduk on the election.
Does the current economic turmoil favor one candidate over the other?
Absolutely. Whichever candidate can portray himself as best suited to solve the crisis will have the best chance of winning. And right now, according to the polls, that appears to be Obama, which isn’t really surprising.
Why not?
Because historically, whenever the nation has been in the grip of a economic crisis, the party in control of the presidency has been blamed for it — rightly or wrongly — and not fared well in subsequent elections. So those two factors — the economy and the fact that the incumbent President is a Republican with the lowest approval ratings in memory — are hurting McCain and benefiting Obama. That’s especially the case in the so-called battleground states.
But McCain has distanced himself from George Bush. Will that have any impact on his chances?
Yes — but perhaps less than he’d like, and less than it might take to win. McCain has positioned himself as different from Bush, and has cited his efforts on behalf of campaign finance reform and other initiatives as evidence of his “maverick” status. But it’s almost as if he’s saying he’s “Republican lite.” That could hurt him. I think people who want real change may be more drawn to a Democrat like Obama than another Republican, even if he presents himself as a maverick.
Of course, there are still plenty of undecided voters, and they could swing the election one way or the other, couldn’t they?
Yes. The people who’ve already made up their minds or clearly identified themselves as Democrats or Republicans are going to vote for their respective candidates, and nothing will change that between now and Election Day. But as you move toward the center, you find a significant number of people who are still undecided or identify themselves as independents. Many aren’t even registered in a political party. Those are the ones both campaigns are targeting—and the ones they hope they can peel off.
Do you think McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate has helped his
campaign?
I think she was a smart choice — at least in the short term. Her selection mobilized a large part of the Republican base and she clearly has the capacity to draw thousands of people to campaign events in a way that McCain can’t. Palin’s youth, vitality, femininity and conservatism play strongly with several different voter blocs. But there are also some minuses that are becoming more apparent, especially some of the scandals that are brewing, which could ultimately be damaging.
